The latest forecast by the ‘banco malo’ suggests that house prices could begin to rise as from 2017 and then at a rate of around 3% for the next ten years. In the meantime, there will be two more years of decline followed by two years of stagnation.
The ‘banco malo’ suggests that the price of houses will fall by an average of 2.8% in 2013 and by 1.5% in 2014 followed by two years of stagnation.
As regards unfinished homes, the ‘banco malo’ predicts a price decrease of 7.7% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014 before rising by an average of 3% from 2017.
As regards land development, the recovery could come one year earlier in 2016, but before that there is likely to be a fall of 12.5% in 2013 and 5% in 2014.
Three autonomous regions account for around 50% of the 800,000 unsold homes in 2011, these being Comunidad Valencia, Andalucía and Castilla-La Mancha. The boom years and an obsession with build, build, build led to a huge housing surplus.
Even during the economic crisis, the building of houses and shops remains a priority for many municipalities as building licences are their main source of revenue.